An Evaluation of the Different Serum Markers Associated with Mortality in Crimean–Congo Hemorrhagic Fever

Yusuf Kenan Tekin and Aynur Engin

Abstract

Background: Crimean–Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a tick-borne viral disease with a high mortality rate. Although CCHF has been widely investigated over the past decade, a review of the literature indicated no data on the prognostic capacity of the mean platelet volume-to-platelet count ratio (MPVPCR) and the red cell distribution width-to-platelet count ratio (RDWPCR) for the systemic inflammatory response in patients with CCHF. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic ability of MPVPCR and RDWPCR on mortality in patients with CCHF. Methods: A total of 807 patients that were admitted to the Cumhuriyet University Hospital’s Emergency Department from January 2010 to December 2018 were involved. The RDWPCR and MPVPCR were separately calculated via absolute blood red cell and platelet counts at the time of admission. Before performing receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to define the optimum cut-off values of MPVPCR and RDWPCR stepwise logistic regression analysis was used to determine the predictive factors related to mortality in CCHF patients. Results: Values of both MPVPCR and RDWPCR were significantly lower in survivors than in non-survivors (MPVPCR: 0.20±0.23 versus 0.55±0.55, P<0.001; RDWPCR: 0.27±0.32 versus 0.77±0.77, P<0.001, respectively). The MPVPCR (odds ratio [OR], 5.95; P=0.048) was an independent predictor for the prognosis of mortality in CCHF patients. The area under the curve in the ROC curve analysis for MPVPCR was 0.876 with a cut-off of 0.21 (sensitivity 87%, specificity 76%). Conclusion: At the time of admission, MPVPCR might be a useful predictor of mortality in patients with CCHF.

Rambam Maimonides Med J 2020;11(4):e0032